Transparent Methodology

How HailScore Works

Every HailScore is built from verified NOAA radar data. Not estimates, not models. Here is exactly how we turn 4.5 million storm records into a risk score for your address.

4.5M+

Radar Records

NOAA NEXRAD hail events

10 Yrs

of Data

2015 through 2025

50

States

Nationwide coverage

$0

Your Cost

Always free for homeowners

Data Sources

HailScore is built on official NOAA government data, the same data used by meteorologists, insurance actuaries, and the National Weather Service.

NEXRAD

NOAA NEXRAD Radar Network

The Next Generation Weather Radar network operates 160 high resolution Doppler radar stations across the US. These stations use dual polarization technology to detect precipitation type, intensity, and movement. When storm cells produce hail, NEXRAD measures estimated hail diameter and logs the event with precise coordinates and timestamp.

160 radar stations · 5-minute scan intervals · nationwide coverageOfficial NOAA Source →
SWDI

NOAA Severe Weather Data Inventory

The SWDI API maintained by NCEI provides structured access to storm event records. We ingest hail event records via the SWDI API endpoint, filtering for hail events with diameter of 0.75 inches or larger within each city bounding box.

4.5M+ hail records ingested · updated continuouslyOfficial NOAA Source →
STORM

NOAA Storm Events Database

The NOAA Storm Events Database provides ground-truth verification for major hail events, including reports from storm spotters, emergency management, and law enforcement. We cross-reference NEXRAD detections with Storm Events data to validate the largest events in our database.

Used for validation of extreme hail events (2 inches and above)Official NOAA Source →

The Scoring Algorithm

Five weighted factors combine to produce your 0 to 100 HailScore. Each factor reflects a distinct dimension of hail damage risk.

Weight breakdown

Storm Frequency 25%Recency Weighting 25%Hail Size Severity 30%Cumulative Damage 15%Geographic Proximity 5%
01

Storm Frequency

25% of score

We count every radar-detected hail event within 15 miles of your property over the past 10 years. More events = higher base score.

02

Recency Weighting

25% of score

Recent storms score higher than old ones. We apply an exponential time decay function. A storm from last month counts roughly 3x more than one from five years ago.

03

Hail Size Severity

30% of score

Hail size scales non-linearly. Under 0.75 inches is negligible. 1 to 1.5 inches is moderate. 1.75 to 2 inches is significant. Over 2 inches means severe structural damage likely requiring full replacement.

04

Cumulative Damage

15% of score

Repeated moderate hail compounds over time. A roof hit by 1" hail five times has accumulated more damage than one hit once by 2" hail.

05

Geographic Proximity

5% of score

A storm 0.1 miles away scores at full weight; one at 14 miles scores at roughly 10% weight. We use a distance-decay function based on storm cell size from NEXRAD data.

Reading Your Score

HailScores range from 0 to 100. Here is what each band means for your property.

0-30

Low Risk

Minimal hail history. Standard roof maintenance is sufficient.

31-60

Moderate Risk

Some hail activity. Consider an inspection after any 1"+ event.

61-80

High Risk

Regular hail exposure. Professional inspection strongly recommended.

81-100

Very High Risk

Severe, repeated hail history. Roof damage is likely. Inspect immediately.

How We Process the Data

From NOAA radar detection to your HailScore. The data pipeline explained.

1

NEXRAD Radar Detection

NOAA radar stations scan the atmosphere every 4 to 6 minutes. When storm cells produce hail, the dual polarization radar detects the hail signature and logs estimated diameter, timestamp, and precise coordinates.

2

SWDI API Ingestion

We pull hail event records from the NOAA SWDI API for all cities in our database, filtering for events 0.75 inch diameter and above. Records are loaded into a PostGIS spatial database for fast geographic queries.

3

Spatial Indexing

Each hail event is stored as a geographic point in our database. When you look up an address, we run a spatial query to find all events within 15 miles of your coordinates. Results typically come back in under 200ms.

4

Score Calculation

The five scoring factors (frequency, recency, hail size, cumulative damage, proximity) are computed from the query results and normalized to a 0 to 100 scale. Score calculation happens server side in real time.

5

Report Generation

Your full report includes the numeric score, score band, storm event timeline, interactive map, hail size distribution, and a summary of the highest impact events near your property.

Accuracy & Limitations

What HailScore does well

  • Captures all radar detected hail events in a 10 year window
  • Distinguishes between minor and severe hail events by size
  • Accounts for cumulative wear from repeated moderate events
  • Provides block level precision vs zip code averages
  • Updated continuously as new NOAA data becomes available

Known limitations

  • Radar hail size estimates can vary by 0.25 inches from ground truth
  • Storm history before 2015 is not included in the current database
  • Score reflects storm activity, not confirmed roof damage. An inspection is required for confirmation.
  • Urban heat effects and terrain can cause micro variation within the 15 mile radius
  • HailScore is not a substitute for a professional roof inspection

Ready to check your address?

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