Transparent Methodology

How HailScore Works

Every HailScore is built from verified NOAA radar data. Not estimates, not models. Here is exactly how we turn 4.7 million NOAA radar records plus live MRMS, NWS, SPC, and CoCoRaHS feeds into a hail-risk score for your address.

4.7M+

Radar Records

NOAA NEXRAD hail events

<2 hr

Live Radar

MRMS to your report

10+ Yrs

of History

2015 to present

$0

Your Cost

Always free for homeowners

Data Sources

HailScore is built on official NOAA government data, the same data used by meteorologists, insurance actuaries, and the National Weather Service.

MRMS

NCEP Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (Live)

NOAA's MRMS system fuses every NEXRAD radar in the US into a continuous CONUS-wide hail-detection grid updated every two minutes. We ingest the MESH_Max_1440min product — maximum estimated hail size over the last 24 hours — directly from NCEP every four hours. This is what closes the gap between when a storm hits and when your score reflects it.

From radar to your report in under two hours · 200K+ live cells and growingOfficial NOAA Source →
NEXRAD

NOAA NEXRAD Radar Network

The Next Generation Weather Radar network operates 160 high-resolution Doppler radar stations across the US. Dual-polarization technology detects precipitation type, intensity, and movement. When storm cells produce hail, NEXRAD measures estimated hail diameter and logs the event with precise coordinates and timestamp.

160 radar stations · 5-minute scan intervals · nationwide coverageOfficial NOAA Source →
SWDI

NOAA Severe Weather Data Inventory

The SWDI API provides finalized NEXRAD hail-signature records once NOAA's quality-control pipeline runs (~60-90 day lag). We ingest every record ≥0.75″ across all 50 states. Combined with live MRMS, this gives us continuous coverage with no gap between historical and current data.

4.7M+ finalized hail records · 2015 to present · all 50 statesOfficial NOAA Source →
NWS

National Weather Service Active Alerts

The NWS API publishes every Severe Thunderstorm Warning and Tornado Warning as a polygon geometry with parsed maximum hail size and wind gust. We poll the active-alerts feed every 60 seconds during hail season. When a polygon covers your address, the report shows a live banner above the score.

Polled every 60s in season · point-in-polygon match · real-time during-storm UXOfficial NOAA Source →
SPC

NOAA Storm Prediction Center · LSR + Storm Events

The Storm Prediction Center publishes Local Storm Reports (ground-truth observations from spotters, emergency managers, law enforcement) within hours of an event, and finalized Storm Events records on a 60-90 day cycle. We use both to validate radar detections and to anchor the largest events in our scoring.

Ground-truth verification of every event ≥2.0″ · 12,500+ verified hail reportsOfficial NOAA Source →
CoCoRaHS

Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network

A volunteer-staffed precipitation observation network used by NWS, USDA, and academic researchers. CoCoRaHS observers record hail size at their specific property after every event, providing ground truth at finer spatial resolution than SPC reports.

Volunteer-staffed · address-level resolution · supplements radarOfficial NOAA Source →

The Scoring Algorithm

Five weighted factors combine to produce your 0 to 100 HailScore. Each factor reflects a distinct dimension of hail damage risk.

Weight breakdown

Storm Frequency 25%Recency Weighting 25%Hail Size Severity 30%Cumulative Damage 15%Geographic Proximity 5%
01

Storm Frequency

25% of score

We count every radar-detected hail event within 15 miles of your property over the past 10 years. More events = higher base score.

02

Recency Weighting

25% of score

Recent storms score higher than old ones. We apply an exponential time decay function. A storm from last month counts roughly 3x more than one from five years ago.

03

Hail Size Severity

30% of score

Hail size scales non-linearly. Under 0.75 inches is negligible. 1 to 1.5 inches is moderate. 1.75 to 2 inches is significant. Over 2 inches means severe structural damage likely requiring full replacement.

04

Cumulative Damage

15% of score

Repeated moderate hail compounds over time. A roof hit by 1" hail five times has accumulated more damage than one hit once by 2" hail.

05

Geographic Proximity

5% of score

A storm 0.1 miles away scores at full weight; one at 14 miles scores at roughly 10% weight. We use a distance-decay function based on storm cell size from NEXRAD data.

Reading Your Score

HailScores range from 0 to 100. Here is what each band means for your property.

0-30

Low Risk

Minimal hail history. Standard roof maintenance is sufficient.

31-60

Moderate Risk

Some hail activity. Consider an inspection after any 1"+ event.

61-80

High Risk

Regular hail exposure. Professional inspection strongly recommended.

81-100

Very High Risk

Severe, repeated hail history. Roof damage is likely. Inspect immediately.

How We Process the Data

From NOAA radar detection to your HailScore. The data pipeline explained.

1

Continuous Radar Ingestion

Every four hours, our GitHub Actions pipeline pulls the latest MRMS MESH_Max_1440min GRIB2 grid from NCEP, decodes it with NOAA's eccodes library, filters to CONUS land cells ≥0.75″, and writes to our PostGIS database. A second writer runs on a backup machine in parallel for redundancy.

2

NWS Active Alerts (Real-Time)

During hail season we poll the NWS active-alerts feed every 60 seconds. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Tornado Warnings get stored with their polygon geometry, parsed max hail size, and expiration. When you look up an address, we run a point-in-polygon query — if a warning covers you, the report shows it.

3

Address Geocoding + Spatial Query

Your address is geocoded via Mapbox to lat/lon coordinates. We then run parallel PostGIS spatial queries: radar_hail (finalized SWDI), mrms_mesh (live MRMS), storm_events (NOAA), SPC LSR, CoCoRaHS, and NWS alerts. All scoped to within 8 miles of your property. Results come back in 200-500ms.

4

Score Calculation

The five scoring factors (frequency, recency, hail size, cumulative damage, proximity) are computed in real time. MRMS events are deduplicated against radar_hail to prevent double-counting in the overlap window. Roof age and material apply final multipliers. The score is normalized to a 0–100 scale.

5

Report Render

Your report builds in the browser with the score gauge, an interactive Mapbox map (with optional hail-swath polygon overlay for pros), event timeline, recent MRMS activity panel, storm narrative, and source citations. Each section names the data feed it came from so you can verify anything that matters.

Accuracy & Limitations

What HailScore does well

  • Captures all radar detected hail events in a 10 year window
  • Distinguishes between minor and severe hail events by size
  • Accounts for cumulative wear from repeated moderate events
  • Provides block level precision vs zip code averages
  • Updated continuously as new NOAA data becomes available

Known limitations

  • Radar hail size estimates can vary by 0.25 inches from ground truth
  • Storm history before 2015 is not included in the current database
  • Score reflects storm activity, not confirmed roof damage. An inspection is required for confirmation.
  • Urban heat effects and terrain can cause micro variation within the 15 mile radius
  • HailScore is not a substitute for a professional roof inspection

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